easy | probability |
A father claims about snowfall last night. First daughter tells that the probability of snowfall on a particular night is 1/8. Second daughter tells that 5 out of 6 times the father is lying! What is the probability that there actually was a snowfall?
Conditional Probability or Baye's Theorem
1/36
Let Snowfall occurred, and be the event that the father is claiming snowfall ocurred.
Probability of (Snowfall given Claim) =
(given in the question, father lies 5/6 times)
where means that it did not snow.