Easy | Probability |

Probability of accidents on a road in one hour is 3/4. What is the probability of accidents in half hour?

Hint

The probability of no event in two disjoint intervals of half hours is same as probability of no event in one full hour.

Answer

1/2

Solution

Probability of no accident in 1 hour = (prob of no accident in 1/2 hour )*(no accidents in next disjoint 1/2 hour)=p^2

hence 1/4=p^2, hence p=1/2, hence probability of accident in half hour=1/2

Read Palak's detailed solution:

Assuming things to be memoryless, and thus disjoint time intervals to be independent, prob. of no accidents in [0,2t) = prob. of no accidents in [0,t) AND [t,2t) => 1-p(2t) = (1-p(t))^2, where p(t) is the prob. of accident in time interval of length t. Given that p(1h)=3/4 => p(0.5h)=1/2 and p(2h)=15/16.

The way we have defined p(t) above, it is the probability that at least 1 accident happens in time interval t. Thus, as t increases, p(t) increases.

If, instead, p(t) is defined as the fraction of vehicles that met with an accident in time interval t, then again p(2t)=p(t)+(1-p(t))*p(t)=1-(1-p(t))^2

hence 1/4=p^2, hence p=1/2, hence probability of accident in half hour=1/2

Read Palak's detailed solution:

Assuming things to be memoryless, and thus disjoint time intervals to be independent, prob. of no accidents in [0,2t) = prob. of no accidents in [0,t) AND [t,2t) => 1-p(2t) = (1-p(t))^2, where p(t) is the prob. of accident in time interval of length t. Given that p(1h)=3/4 => p(0.5h)=1/2 and p(2h)=15/16.

The way we have defined p(t) above, it is the probability that at least 1 accident happens in time interval t. Thus, as t increases, p(t) increases.

If, instead, p(t) is defined as the fraction of vehicles that met with an accident in time interval t, then again p(2t)=p(t)+(1-p(t))*p(t)=1-(1-p(t))^2

Source: Placement tests

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