easy | probability |
Two bullets are loaded into a gun's round barrel consecutively. The barrel has a capacity of 6. The gun is fired once, but no bullet is shot. Does rolling the barrel (shuffling) before next shot increase the probability of firing a bullet?
Since the bullets are loaded consecutively, the next shot is also constrained.
Yes, shuffling increases the probability of firing a bullet from to )
Initial Misstep: If the two bullets are randomly put instead of consecutively, then, after firing one empty shot, there are bullets and total slots. The probability would be , but that's not the case here.
Correct step: The probability of firing a bullet without a shuffle is . To understand this, imagine that the firing pin was on one of the empty slots , and the first shot was taken, but no bullet was fired. Now assumming that the barrel rotates clockwise, the pin will move to one of these slots: . Out of these four slots, only the slot has a bullet. Hence probability of firing a bullet is . Note that the same is true in anti-clockwise direction.
After the shuffle, the state is reset. There are total slots with bullets, the probabilty of firing a bullet after a shuffle is .
Thus, shuffling does increase the probability of firing a bullet (from to )