probability puzzles
medium | probability |
You have an opportunity to make one bid on an object, whose value to its owner is, as far as you know, uniformly random integer between $0 and $100. What you do know is that you are so much better at operating the widget than he is, that its value to you is 80% greater than its value to him. If you offer more than the widget is worth to the owner, he will sell it. But you get only one shot. How much should you bid? For example, if its actual value is $10, you bid & win at $11, and sell it for $18, making profit. But if you bid more than $18, you make lose! But since you don't know how much its actual price is, how do you bid in order to make some profit?
Consider the case he already won the bid at $x. What happens next?
CSEBLOG: We should bet only 0! (dont bet!) Suppose I bet $x and get the widget. So, the value of it for the owner would be $y, uniformly distributed between 0 and x. So, its value for me is $1.8y. Expected value for me is 1.8* Expected value of y = 1.8*x/2= 0.9x
So, if I get, expected value of the widget for me is 0.9x $ paying x $.
If x is less, i.e I am not getting it, I did not gain/lose anything.
So, overall I am losing. So, I should not bid.